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XC Skiing with Mark Parman Skiers sweat global warming "So much for Gore and his global warming, huh?" "I sure could use a little of that global warming right now - to clean my drive." Both men laughed, said their goodbyes and moved on to finish their shopping at Fleet Farm. I had to admit, on that cold evening, global warming seemed a myth, the theory of some crazed scientist. It was early December, and just a few days earlier a winter storm dumped 7 to 8 inches of snow in central Wisconsin, and more was predicted later that evening. In addition, the weatherman was predicting another 2 to 4 inches over the next couple days as a procession of storms marched across the Pacific and into the upper Midwest. An old-fashioned winter was eclipsing thoughts of global warming. And yet, in the back of my mind, I knew that in a matter of days, even hours, the breezes could head back to the southwest, bringing in a warm front and a meltdown. Just six years ago on this date, we felt a record high temperature in Wausau - 57 degrees Fahrenheit. Shirt-sleeve weather. Unlike species extinction, urban sprawl, ozone depletion and the myriad other environmental problems we face in the 21st century, none affects cross-country skiers as directly as global warming. "Our sport is more vulnerable than any other in the world," said Bill McKibben, author of The End of Nature, which foresaw the issue when it was published in 1989. McKibben is no new newcomer to global warming or Nordic skiing. There is no doubt in McKibben's mind that the world is warming - an alarming and "inconvenient truth" if one likes winter sports. "On average, winter is three weeks shorter at my latitude (New England) than 30 years ago. Ice-out dates on northern lakes are weeks ahead of what they used to be," McKibben said in an e-mail interview. He also mentioned a University of New Hampshire regional climate report (necci.sr.unh.edu) that asserts cross-country skiing will be "extinct" by the end of the century. McKibben's work on global warming is particularly noteworthy because he's an avid cross-country skier, not some cloistered academic merely observing consequences with detachment. He is currently a scholar in residence in environmental studies at Middlebury College in Vermont as well as the faculty affiliate for the college's Nordic ski team. He has skied the American Birkebeiner, and among his many books on environmental topics, he wrote Long Distance, a book about his year of training like an elite ski racer. So when McKibben speaks of global warming, I listen - even if I don't like what I'm hearing. Like the two guys I overheard at Fleet Farm illustrate, most of us have difficulty separating the fluctuations of everyday weather with the long-term characteristics and effects of climate, the average of many years of weather. So far, the winter of 2007-08 looks like a banner year for cross-country skiers - as well as snowshoers, snowmobilers, ice fishermen and anyone who loves winter. But what's really going on with our climate? And will global warming ultimately doom cross-country skiing? According to the Wisconsin State Climatology Office, temperatures in the state have mostly warmed since the advent of modern record keeping in 1895. In the 112 years since then, annual temperatures have risen 1.1ºF. Summer and autumn temperatures have stayed fairly consistent, however, showing a 0.2ºF rise for summer and a 0.2ºF drop for autumn. Winter temps, however, have risen an alarming 2.7ºF. Minnesota's winters have warmed even more, rising 3.1ºF. In addition, winter precipitation has remained consistent in Wisconsin winters, rising slightly in Minnesota. If we consider the top 20 coldest and warmest winters, though, we see an alarming tendency toward warmer winters. Five of the warmest Wisconsin winters on record occurred in the 1990s; so far, two have occurred in the seven years of the new century. That's seven of the 20 warmest winters in the last 17 years, resulting in one Birkie cancellation and two shortened races three times in the last nine years. The 1940s and '50s were warm as well: five of our top 20 warmest winters came then. Wisconsin lake ice duration records from the state climatology office also reveal an overall warming trend. Ice records for Lake Mendota in Madison go back over 150 years. The longest that water body has remained frozen was 161 days way back in1880-81 and the shortest was a mere 21 days the winter of 2001-02. The median duration for ice on Lake Mendota is 105 days. Since 1980, only five winters have been cold enough to keep the ice on Mendota for the median duration. The graph on the right shows a clear downward trend toward fewer ice days over the past 152 years. We have had cold winters. The early part of the 20th century was particularly cold, with seven of the top 20 coldest winters occurring between 1900 and 1920. The '60s and '70s also saw some good winters, supporting those childhood stories of head-high snow and never-ending cold, especially when this narrator grew up in the upper Midwest in the '70s. In fact, during this time period, cross-country skiing boomed, the cold and snowy winters helping to draw Americans into the sport, and many Baby Boomer skiers who got their start skiing then, look back fondly on these white years. Compared with our recent pathetic winters, the '70s look like a mini Ice Age. Rick Budde, in an article published on Skinnyski.com, wrote, "It was during this time frame that many of us developed our own personal sense of what a normal winter is like. The unfortunate truth is that these years were truly exceptional and not representative of what is normal." Weather statistics from the Twin Cities show that many of those winters saw 4 or more inches of snow on the ground for over 100 days, about 40 days more than a usual winter. The coldest January ever in the Twin Cities was in 1977, which averaged 0.3ºF. The warmest was in 2006, with an average temperature of 28.6ºF. (See http://climate.umn.edu/doc/twin_cities/twin_cities.htm for more info.) Winter is clearly a fickle master. Our temperatures can swing as much as 90 to 100 degrees in January, while they only swing 50 to 60 degrees in July. The brutal cold still creeps down from the Arctic as it did last February, when the temperatures dived to nearly 30 degrees below zero in some places in northern Minnesota and Wisconsin. At the Badger State Games, I was able to take five photos of ski racers with my camera before it froze up in the subzero cold. In the mid '90s, a nasty cold snap plunged the ambient temperature to 50 below in Seeley, Wisconsin. A friend told me about how he'd thrown a bucket of water into the air and watched it freeze into ice crystals before it hit the ground. He was so amazed that he went back into the house, refilled the bucket, ran outside and threw the water into the air again. The upper Midwest will still see snow and cold aplenty. Nevertheless, our winters are about 3 degrees higher than they were a century ago, enough to change snow into sleet or rain. There is little debate in the scientific community whether or not the planet is warming. The debate is whether man-made greenhouse gases - essentially the byproducts of our lifestyle - are raising the temperature or if the cause is natural. Then again, the warming could be a combination of man-made and natural causes. Global warming presents numerous uncertainties. Ironically, though, our skiing - driving to destinations, grooming and the production of ski equipment - might be contributing to the warming. By participating in the winter sports we love, we could be dooming the season we love. For those who think a little global warming in winter is a good thing - like the two shoppers I overheard in Fleet Farm - McKibben says "this is simply the first sign of a planet spinning wildly out of control. It's not like we're turning a thermostat. It's like we're setting the house on fire." Mark Parman lives in Wausau, Wisconsin, where he teaches English and journalism at the University of Wisconsin-Marathon County. He is an accomplished regional cross-country ski and bicycle racer | ||
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