November: Sometimes the start of winter By Tony Schumacher When I was a kid, it seemed like the sensation of winter would set in during November. I remember the bleak gray skies, cold winds and plenty of
snow, especially toward the end of the month. Yes, snow. In fact, if we didn't have a few inches or even a foot to trudge through for deer hunting season in northern Wisconsin, it was unusual.  In recent years, though, for much of our region, November has been mostly a mild, dry month,
not giving much hope to anxious skiers. I must say it's been great for golfers, runners and bikers. Of course, there have been a few wintry bursts. For instance, upper Michigan was buried with lake effect snow last year from Nov. 26 to 28, when Marquette picked up 33 inches, and many areas received 8 to 12 inches. But even some of that melted into early December with warmer temperatures. In general, four of the last five Novembers in the upper
Midwest have been warmer than normal, with well below normal snowfall. In fact, November 2001 was the warmest November on record for our area, and 1999 was a close second. That's rather incredible to have the two warmest Novembers on record in the course of three years.
So what is November weather supposed to be like in the upper Midwest? The chart shows the 30 year average temperature and
snowfall data for several locations.
As you've probably noticed, the best chance of getting decent snow and cold in November is in the northern and western portions of the Midwest. Chicago doesn't hold much hope with an average monthly snowfall of only one inch and average temperatures near 40 F. There have, however, been some real humdinger snowstorms in
November, even sometimes in the midst of a generally warm month. The late 1980s were quite active in our region.
Major November Snowstorms in the Midwest
Nov. 11 12, 1940: Blizzard in Wisconsin and Iowa, up to 17" of snow and severe drifting.
Nov. 6 8, 1943: 10 22" of snow in Wisconsin and Minnesota, roads blocked for days.
Nov. 28, 1960: Foot of snow in Duluth, Minn., plus 73 mph winds.
Nov. 19, 1981: Foot of snow in Twin Cities, Minn., roof of Metrodome ripped/collapsed!
Nov. 20, 1987: 18" of snow in the Upper Peninsula of Michigan.
Nov. 29, 1987: 10" of snow in Douglas and Bayfield counties of Wisconsin.
Nov. 6, 1988: 3 feet of snow in Porcupine Mountains of Upper Michigan.
Nov. 27, 1988: 14" of snow in Aitkin, Minn., with drifts to 7 feet in Minnesota.
Nov. 2, 1989: 46" of snow in Ironwood, Mich., and 40" in Hurley, Wis.
Oct. 31 Nov. 2, 1991: Halloween blizzard, 20 35" of snow in eastern Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin.
November Predictions
Now, if your appetite is ripe for a snowy and cold November, the outlook for November will probably leave you unsatisfied. The Climate Prediction Center indicates warmer than normal and near normal to drier than normal weather from the Western Great Lakes into the Northern Plains. Actually, they are predicting that general trend for the rest of
winter as well. For what it's worth, the Old Farmers Almanac, in which I put no trust, is giving a very similar forecast.
Both sources are relying heavily on the fact that a moderate El Niņo is in progress in the tropical Pacific Ocean. This normally has a pronounced warming and drying effect on the north central part of the United States, as normal storm tracks are shifted northward. Also, they weigh their
forecast somewhat on trends, which we've seen earlier in this article have featured warm and dry Novembers in four of the last five years around here.
People often turn to animal behavior this time of the year to try to predict the upcoming winter. The prognostications of one commercial fisherman often make the Chicago newspapers. Mathon Kyritsis says that if the perch head to deep water early in the fall, winter will be early and severe.
He also claims if the dorsal fin is light in color, the winter will be mild; if it's dark, it will be severe.
The thickness of animal hair is also mentioned as a forecaster. Generally, if the fall has been cold and wet, the animals have long, thick hair going into winter. This phenomenon basically indicates what the current weather has been like, not an indicator of future conditions. Cattle shipped from Texas to Canada, which had short hair in the early fall,
quickly grow long hair in Canada due to the change in temperature. If the cattle had known ahead of time that the winter was going to be cold, they would have started growing it longer in Texas already.
Of course, you've heard that the more nuts squirrels store away, the harsher the winter is going to be. Actually, scientists believe the squirrels are just harvesting what was available to them from nature. This is based
on what the weather was like when the tree flowers were pollinating in the spring and summer. So don't go nuts thinking about how the nuts affect the winter!
Here's one last observation. It seems to me that the seasons in the past several years around here have been shifted one month. Winter weather starts more in late December and ends in mid April. The summer heat, sun and humidity has not really kicked in either until late June in much of
our region. Of course, there has been variations and spells of normal weather mixed in, but nothing in terms of reliable. What do you make of the spells of extreme dryness and rain this past year? I can't remember a summer where so many times, two inches or more of rain would fall in a single storm.
Well, in a few weeks we'll know if the warm and dry predictions for November come true. Maybe some yet unforeseen weather pattern will
counteract El Niņo and trends, and give us an early winter.
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